Black Box Report

Can I go home now?

Ask not for whom the bell tolls:

"Today I have withdrawn my candidacy for President of the United States. I hope that my country and my party have benefited from our having made this effort. Jeri and I will always be grateful for the encouragement and friendship of so many wonderful people."

It tolls for Fred Thompson.

Fred Thompson's campaign strategy centered on a simple 3 step plan:

Step 1 - Declare candidacy.
Step 2 - .........
Step 3 - Win the White House!

It was that step 2 that ol' Fred had a bit of trouble with:

In order to succeed as a candidate, one has to work really hard. Thompson, from the outset, wanted to be president, but he didn’t want to run for president. He expressed nothing but disdain for giving speeches, meeting voters, making appearances, and doing interviews. He would simply disappear for days, while most of the field was working furiously to rally support.

That, coupled with near-constant staff turmoil, an inability to raise money, and a jaw-dropping ignorance of public policy and current events, gave Thompson almost no hope at all.

There's a lot of navel-gazing going on today in the rightwing blogosphere as Thompson's supporters try to figure out what went wrong:

It seems like an opportunity lost, but perhaps one that may have been overestimated from the beginning.

Ya' think? From the beginning, Thompson's biggest assets were he was famous for playing presidential law and order types on TV and in movies, he was legitimately conservative and...did I mention he was (relatively) famous? He was supposed to be the second coming of Reagan, but he just wasn't. But all of this may have just been a ruse as Fred auditioned for the role he wanted all along - Vice President:

Now it can be told- The Thompson story

by Carl Cameron

Back in March of 07 at the CPAC convention in DC several former Fred Thompson Congressional staffers told me Fred Thompson was thinking about a run. Some of his Tennessee cronies had been talking him up too.

I reported first that he was eyeing a White House bid. At the time several insiders told me OFF THE RECORD that it was largely a trial ballon to guage his popularity and float his name as a possible vice presidential nominee. I was sworn to silence.

Those insiders have now lifted the conditions on our conversations...
......
The trial balloon soared mighty high and he found himself being dragged into a race that he was not even sure how to run.

He took third in Iowa and Third in South Carolina, after which his aides openly suggested the #2 slot on the ticket. The circle has been closed, and Fred Dalton Thompson is waiting to see if he gets the call from the eventual nominee.

He has not said who he will endorse. He is friends with John McCain. But if he doesn’t throw his support behind anyone …it makes it easier to be picked by everyone.

Let's parse this out...Giuliani/Thompson? As far as Rudy is tanking nationawide and in must-win Florida, this is probably moot, but it wouldn't be a bad choice for Rudy if he can manage to stay alive. Huckabee/Thompson? Unlikely. As the GOP debate in South Carolina showed, ol' Fred seems to legitimately dislike Huck - not Reaganish enough. Romney/Thompson? Not quite as unlikely as Fred probably recognizes the Republican establishment backing Romney and ol' Fred's nothing if not opportunistic. McCain/Thompson? This seems the most likely, but would anger Thompson's supporters to no end, as Thompson would be seen as McCain's conservative beard, masking his own shortcomings in the GOP base's litmus tests.

As for his supporters, the consensus seems to be that the "Fredheads" are likely to split their allegiances among the remaining frontrunners, with a possible edge to McCain, who's still friends with Thompson from their days in the Senate together:

While Thompson's exit could well help Romney or Huckabee in the short run, his departure could accrue to McCain's benefit in the long-term battle for the nomination...

...Given the whimper with which Thompson left the race, all of this talk about what his departure means for the race may well be overblown.

Much like Fred himself. Still, it was fun while it lasted.

Oh...alright. Hit me one last time.

Yeah, I'll miss that.