Black Box Report

I find myself almost sounding like the guy looking for the black cloud in a silver lining. But trust me, if I ever wanted to be wrong it would be tonight. I believe yesterday’s inexplicable rally is a mirage. Like all mirages, if you really believe there’s water and act accordingly, you're in deep trouble. If the powers that be - that means the president and friends - start singing “don't worry, be happy,” I believe they've fatally misread the numbers and the pulse of Wall Street.

Why is Bernanke already hinting at another rate cut? Are more monster writeoffs in the offing? Are earning reports going to be bad news and mean big layoffs? I want the answers to be no - but you wouldn't bet the ranch my gut worries are wrong.

People in the corner offices of corporate America are especially worried, just listen to the dominant topic of recession at the CEO getaway in Davos. The stimulus package will be a nice Band-Aid, but this economy, I’m afraid, is like an illness that’s spreading beyond our borders. It will need some painful surgery. I hope the doctors shoot straight with us.